Skip to content
SG HomePrice Checker

Accuracy

How close our price checks have been

We tested our method on thousands of later sales, each priced using only what was known before the sale. Here is how close it came.

Accuracy

Within 3.3%Half of later HDB resales sold within 3.3% of our mid reference price.

Apr–Sep 2026 · 13,276 later sales · HDB resale

Like an exam with the answers covered: each sale was priced using only data from before it, then compared with what it actually sold for.

Of every 100 later HDB resales, how many sold within…
  • Within ±3.3%1 in 2 (50 of 100)
  • Within ±5%2 in 3 (67 of 100)
  • Within ±10%9 in 10 (91 of 100)

Closer to the sale price than a simple recent-sales check in 59 of 100 cases.

How we got these figures

Our range aims to catch 8 in 10 sales; on later HDB resales it caught 76 in 100.

The simple check: the median recent price per square metre of the same block and flat type (or condo project) over the last 12 months, times floor area, with at least 3 sales. It prices fewer homes, so the comparison uses only sales both could price. 4,863 later sales both could price.

These figures describe past sales, not a guaranteed price for any one home.

Results by type of home

How we test

  1. Step 1

    Go back to a past date

    For example the end of March 2026.

  2. Step 2

    Price every home sold next

    Using only the sales that were known on that date.

  3. Step 3

    Compare with the real price

    Our mid reference price against what each home actually sold for.

We test on later sales (Apr–Sep 2026); the method was built on earlier sales.

Results by type of home

For each type of home: how many later sales landed close to our mid reference price, and how often our range caught the sale.

HDB resale

Tested on later sales

Within 3.3%

Half of later HDB resales sold within 3.3% of our mid reference price.

Of every 100 later HDB resales, how many sold within…
  • Within ±3.3%1 in 2 (50 of 100)
  • Within ±5%2 in 3 (67 of 100)
  • Within ±10%9 in 10 (91 of 100)
Inside our reference range
Our range aims to catch 8 in 10 sales; on later HDB resales it caught 76 in 100.
Closer than a quick estimate
Closer to the sale price than a simple recent-sales check in 59 of 100 cases. 4,863 later sales both could price.
No reference price given
2.3%

Apr–Sep 2026 · 13,276 of 13,595 sales priced

Condo resale

Tested on later sales

Within 3.2%

Half of later condo resales sold within 3.2% of our mid reference price.

Of every 100 later condo resales, how many sold within…
  • Within ±3.2%1 in 2 (50 of 100)
  • Within ±5%2 in 3 (67 of 100)
  • Within ±10%9 in 10 (89 of 100)
Inside our reference range
Our range aims to catch 8 in 10 sales; on later condo resales it caught 79 in 100.
Closer than a quick estimate
Closer to the sale price than a simple recent-sales check in 63 of 100 cases. 4,984 later sales both could price.
No reference price given
13.8%

Apr–Sep 2026 · 5,329 of 6,183 sales priced

EC resale

Measured on build-period sales

Within 3.0%

Half of EC resales in the build period sold within 3.0% of our mid reference price.

Measured on the sales the method was built on (Jan 2024 – Mar 2026); read it separately from the later-sales figures.

Of every 100 EC resales (build period), how many sold within…
  • Within ±3.0%1 in 2 (50 of 100)
  • Within ±5%7 in 10 (74 of 100)
  • Within ±10%96 in 100 (96 of 100)
Inside our reference range (set on these same sales)
80.6%
No reference price given
7.7%

Jan 2024 – Mar 2026 · 4,098 of 4,440 sales priced

Show all figures

  • HDB resale

    Later sales (test) · Apr–Sep 2026

    Sales
    13,595
    Priced
    13,276
    Median error
    3.3%
    ±5%
    67.0%
    ±10%
    90.6%
    Inside range
    75.5%
    Not priced
    2.3%
    Average difference
    +1.4%

  • HDB resale

    Build period · Apr 2023 – Mar 2026

    Sales
    78,047
    Priced
    76,812
    Median error
    3.1%
    ±5%
    70.6%
    ±10%
    93.4%
    Inside range
    80.5%
    Not priced
    1.6%
    Average difference
    -0.6%

  • Condo resale

    Later sales (test) · Apr–Sep 2026

    Sales
    6,183
    Priced
    5,329
    Median error
    3.2%
    ±5%
    66.9%
    ±10%
    89.2%
    Inside range
    78.6%
    Not priced
    13.8%
    Average difference
    +0.4%

  • Condo resale

    Build period · Jan 2024 – Mar 2026

    Sales
    27,660
    Priced
    23,733
    Median error
    3.4%
    ±5%
    66.1%
    ±10%
    89.9%
    Inside range
    80.0%
    Not priced
    14.2%
    Average difference
    0.0%

  • EC resale

    Build period · Jan 2024 – Mar 2026

    Sales
    4,440
    Priced
    4,098
    Median error
    3.0%
    ±5%
    73.9%
    ±10%
    96.4%
    Inside range
    80.6%
    Not priced
    7.7%
    Average difference
    -1.6%

Build period: the earlier sales the method and its range were built on.

Average difference: positive means our mid reference price was above the sale price.

Where our range is less reliable
  • HDB flats larger than most nearby sales: 66.3% sold inside our range (1,098 build-period sales, Apr 2025 – Mar 2026).
  • HDB flats on floors 1–3: 62.7% sold inside our range (4,123 build-period sales, Apr 2025 – Mar 2026).
  • Landed homes get nearby sales, not a reference price: in testing, half of 865 later sales (Apr–Sep 2026) were more than 9.2% away.
  • 13.8% of later condo resales got no reference price because the evidence was too thin or too mixed; those reports show nearby sales instead.

These figures describe past sales, not a guaranteed price for any one home. Figures updated 22 Oct 2026.

Steady every quarter: half of homes sold within about 3.5% of our mid price

Each dot is one quarter of sales: half of them sold within this gap of our mid price. Lower is closer; a flat line means it held steady.

Show chart
Line chart: for each quarter, the gap from our mid price that half of HDB and condo sales came within. Data table below.HDBCondoNewer sales (test)Shaded: newer sales, checked after the method was built. Unshaded: the earlier sales it was built on.
Show data table
  • Q2 2023 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,177 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 80.6% · Not priced 1.6%
  • Q3 2023 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,395 · Half within 3.1% · Inside range 81.8% · Not priced 1.5%
  • Q4 2023 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,175 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 80.9% · Not priced 2.3%
  • Q1 2024 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,673 · Half within 3.1% · Inside range 81.6% · Not priced 1.7%
  • Q2 2024 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,956 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 79.3% · Not priced 1.1%
  • Q3 2024 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 7,780 · Half within 3.5% · Inside range 78.5% · Not priced 0.7%
  • Q4 2024 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,028 · Half within 3.4% · Inside range 79.7% · Not priced 2.5%
  • Q1 2025 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,176 · Half within 3.1% · Inside range 81.7% · Not priced 2.0%
  • Q2 2025 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,691 · Half within 2.8% · Inside range 83.4% · Not priced 1.9%
  • Q3 2025 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 6,871 · Half within 2.9% · Inside range 81.9% · Not priced 1.0%
  • Q4 2025 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 4,973 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 78.7% · Not priced 0.9%
  • Q1 2026 · HDB resaleBuild period · Sales priced 5,917 · Half within 3.2% · Inside range 77.6% · Not priced 2.1%
  • Q2 2026 · HDB resaleLater sales (test) · Sales priced 6,052 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 75.9% · Not priced 2.1%
  • Q3 2026 · HDB resaleLater sales (test) · Sales priced 7,224 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 75.2% · Not priced 2.5%
  • Q1 2024 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,093 · Half within 3.6% · Inside range 82.5% · Not priced 16.1%
  • Q2 2024 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,744 · Half within 3.4% · Inside range 81.3% · Not priced 17.0%
  • Q3 2024 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,908 · Half within 3.5% · Inside range 80.3% · Not priced 13.3%
  • Q4 2024 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,765 · Half within 3.5% · Inside range 80.2% · Not priced 13.6%
  • Q1 2025 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,742 · Half within 3.5% · Inside range 77.4% · Not priced 13.1%
  • Q2 2025 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,737 · Half within 3.2% · Inside range 80.9% · Not priced 13.4%
  • Q3 2025 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,878 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 78.9% · Not priced 14.1%
  • Q4 2025 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,543 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 78.8% · Not priced 12.9%
  • Q1 2026 · Condo resaleBuild period · Sales priced 2,323 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 80.6% · Not priced 14.5%
  • Q2 2026 · Condo resaleLater sales (test) · Sales priced 2,758 · Half within 3.3% · Inside range 79.5% · Not priced 13.5%
  • Q3 2026 · Condo resaleLater sales (test) · Sales priced 2,571 · Half within 3.2% · Inside range 77.8% · Not priced 14.2%
  • Q1 2024 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 411 · Half within 2.9% · Inside range 85.2% · Not priced 5.7%
  • Q2 2024 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 536 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 84.1% · Not priced 11.4%
  • Q3 2024 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 524 · Half within 2.7% · Inside range 84.2% · Not priced 5.8%
  • Q4 2024 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 475 · Half within 3.4% · Inside range 79.6% · Not priced 7.2%
  • Q1 2025 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 418 · Half within 3.7% · Inside range 75.6% · Not priced 11.8%
  • Q2 2025 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 541 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 81.1% · Not priced 5.1%
  • Q3 2025 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 446 · Half within 3.0% · Inside range 78.0% · Not priced 4.7%
  • Q4 2025 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 372 · Half within 2.8% · Inside range 78.2% · Not priced 13.7%
  • Q1 2026 · EC resaleBuild period · Sales priced 375 · Half within 2.8% · Inside range 77.3% · Not priced 3.4%

Closer than a quick estimate

We compared our mid price with a quick estimate anyone can make from recent sales in the same block or condo project.

59 of 100 later HDB resales: our mid price was closer to the actual sale price than the quick estimate.

Within 5% of the actual sale price

Our mid price69 of 100
Quick estimate59 of 100

Within 10% of the actual sale price

Our mid price92 of 100
Quick estimate86 of 100

The quick estimate needs 3 recent sales in the same place, so it could price 36 of 100 later HDB resales; we priced 98 of 100.

Later sales, Apr–Sep 2026 · compared on the 4,863 sales both could price

What is the quick estimate?

The median price per square metre of the same block and flat type (or condo project) over the last 12 months, times the floor area — unadjusted, and only when there are at least 3 such sales.

How the price check works

See it for a home you care about

Check a home for free