A. Conclusion
Fair for recent sales
Only S$25,000 (2.9%) above the mid reference price.
Based on official sales of similar homes. Condition, renovation, facing and view aren’t in the records, so they don’t change the range.
Strong evidence: 20 recent sales, 40% from this block.
Mid reference price = S$1,253 psf × 678 sqft.
Method: we start with the closest sales (same block or project) and widen the search step by step only when there are too few, score similarity by location, size, lease, floor and recency, keep the 20 closest, adjust each price for market movement to 2026 Q3, then take the similarity-weighted median. The range is calibrated against how past sales of similar homes actually turned out.
Assumption: the unit is in typical condition for its comparables. Lease, floor and size differences change weights only — they are not converted into dollar adjustments.
B. Comparable sales
The 20 closest sales — actual prices.
These are the 20 sales the reference range is built from — the most similar by location, size, floor, lease and sale date. This asking: S$1,290 psf (S$875,000).
Actual sale prices · Jan 2026 – Oct 2026 · HDB resale records
Records give floor range and month only — check unit, facing and condition yourself.
Where the sales come from
We start with the closest sales and widen the search only when there are too few.
- 1.Same block or within 150 m20 sales100%
20 kept of 68 similar sales found at this step
- 2.Within 500 mNot needed
- 3.Within 1 kmNot needed
- 4.Same townNot needed
C. Evidence
Strong evidence: 20 recent sales, 40% from this block.
- 20 sales used
- 8 from this block
- Typically 4 months old
Evidence level
Many close matches carry real weight, and most of them are nearby and recent.
How accurate we’ve been
8 in 10 past sales behind this range sold within ±6% of our mid reference price.
The home's details are complete.
We aim for about 80% of sales to land inside the range; on newer sales (Apr–Sep 2026), 75% did (10,328 sales).
Based on 61,214 past checks of HDB resale flats with strong evidence.
We re-ran our method at past dates using only the data available then, and compared it with what each home actually sold for.
D. Negotiation
16 of the 20 closest sales sold below this asking per sqft.
Counted at actual price per sqft, as in B. This asking: S$1,290 psf.
Talking points
- These 16 sold at S$1,078–1,283 psf — ask why this asking is higher.
- Similar floor (19–21): 5 of these, at S$1,202–1,283 psf.
Sold below this asking (16)
- Oct 2026Blk 94 Dawson Rd · floor 25–27 · 678 sqft · 94 yrs lease leftS$1,272 psfsold for S$862,888
- Oct 2026Blk 94 Dawson Rd · floor 25–27 · 678 sqft · 94 yrs lease leftS$1,253 psfsold for S$850,000
- Oct 2026Blk 94 Dawson Rd · floor 25–27 · 678 sqft · 94 yrs lease leftS$1,246 psfsold for S$845,000
- Sep 2026Blk 96 Dawson Rd · floor 19–21 · 678 sqft · 94 yrs lease leftS$1,251 psfsold for S$848,000
- Aug 2026Blk 94 Dawson Rd · floor 19–21 · 678 sqft · 94 yrs lease leftS$1,217 psfsold for S$825,000
4 others sold at or above this asking per sqft.
Evidence, not an offer price — it can’t show what the seller will accept.